Steven Yoder writes an outstanding article for Pacific Standard, asking what is the real sex offender recidivism rate. The answer is it’s much lower that commonly believed – certainly it’s not “frightening and high” as Justice Kennedy asserted in 2003 – and is even low considering under reporting of sex offenses.
The answer is on one really knows. In fact, the drafters of the original SVP law in the state of of Washington apparently thought the imposition of such indefinite commitment would be limited to exceptional cases like those of Earl Shriner and/or Leroy Hendricks, where the risk of recidivism was unquestionably high and indication of committing future violence were obvious. However, many have been already committed in Kansas, and elsewhere. At the same time, there are important indications that the laws have not operated as initially expected, with regard either to those committed under them or to the protection of our society. History has proven mental health professional cannot predict future behavior with any degree of certainty. What have we done? Does the U.S. Constitution stand for anything anymore?